Novig, a sports-focused prediction market, is raising new capital at a valuation of up to $2 billion, four times the $500 million it was valued at in February 2026, according to reports published on 30 September. The round has not closed; it is expected to close over the winter, possibly before year-end, and its size has not been disclosed.
Founded in 2021 by Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah as a peer-to-peer sports betting exchange, Novig has raised more than $105 million across previous rounds, including $18 million in August 2025 and $75 million in February 2026 led by Pantera Capital, with Forerunner Ventures and Joe Montana among its backers. The inflection point was regulatory. In June the Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Novig as a designated contract market, allowing it to operate nationally as a federally regulated venue, and it launched its sports prediction product in August. In the first three weeks of the NFL season it generated $1.14 billion in notional volume, ranking sixth of eleven operators tracked by Aldrin Research. It has signed a multi-year deal with the New York Mets and ran a September campaign featuring actress Sydney Sweeney.
The valuation reflects a market pricing licences more than customers. A CFTC designation is the asset that lets an operator offer sports event contracts across states without the 50-jurisdiction licensing and tax regime that governs sportsbooks, and investors are paying for that access while it lasts. Novig has also chosen a defensive positioning, with a 21-plus age requirement where competitors set the threshold at 18 and compliance with NFL restrictions on manipulable and officiating-related markets, which looks designed to make it the acceptable counterparty for leagues and teams. Scale remains the gap: Kalshi is valued at around $40 billion and Polymarket at around $21 billion, both reportedly raising about $1 billion more.
The risk is that this capital is being committed at the top of a legal cycle. The Ninth Circuit ruled in August that states may regulate prediction markets as gambling, Missouri has issued cease-and-desist orders to six operators including Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig, and reporting indicates federal restrictions on prediction-market advertising are under consideration. For leagues and clubs, the Mets deal shows that a smaller operator will pay for legitimacy. For sportsbooks, a fourfold rerating of a sixth-placed competitor shows how much value investors assign to the federal route that bypasses state taxation.
